I wrote an article last year entitled, “Where to invest for 2008“, and I still have people contacting me about it. I guess the sentiments behind my recommendations are more true today than ever – buy where the locals are buying.

Buying property in a foreign country, where the only people you know are the estate agents, is a risky business. So determining where is really the best location for investment can be a little tricky.

I always say – research – and understand the fundamentals – of the country and economy, GDP predictions, exports, and property prices if possible. It helps to understand why that property or location or country would be good for property investment.

Firstly, and the biggest mistake investors make, is buying with their heart or ego, rather than their head. Some investors only look at what they would live in themselves, but you need to be looking at what you SHOULD buy, rather than what you would like.

So, looking into 2009, where are the best places to invest for 2009:

ALBANIA
Despite the global crisis, the fundamentals still look good. There is a lot of opportunity for the energy sector, telecoms sector, tourism and infrastructure.  Albania has had a very good 2008 and the economy has performed at around 6%. Many roads and sections of roads/ highway have been completed 2008/09.

• Albania has applied to become a candidate member for joining the EU.
• Tourists numbers were up 24% in 2008 and expected to increase in 2009.
• Albania is forecast to have the highest growth in the Balkan region for 2009, and is not expected to fall into recession.
• Property prices are STILL the lowest in the region, with brand new 1 beds in the capital Tirana from EUR25,000. And sea view 1 beds on the coast from EUR37,000.
• Excellent rental yield projections from 7% – 10%

Tirana Apartments Albania

www.freshpropertyalbania.com

BRAZIL
No country is immune to the global crisis, but Brazil is pretty well placed to weather the storm better than most. Mostly a cash based economy, and highlighted by Goldman Sachs to be a world leading economy in the future, investors cannot miss the opportunities presented here, especially in property.
Brazil’s GDP for 2008 was around 5.6%. The banks in Brazil are in an excellent position at the moment, not chasing government funding. Interest rates are coming down (at last) and may soon be single digits.

• GDP for Brazil in 2009 is forecast around 1.5% – 2.5%
• China is now Brazil’s main export country
• Brazil has international reserves standing at US$202 billion
• In the past two years Brazil has discovered the largest oil deposits in the country’s history and the world’s most promising fields (The Economist)

Fortaleza Brazil

ARGENTINA
Despite Argentina’s government, the country cannot help but grow. They have fantastic natural resources, literate population, and huge export potential. After the crisis in 2002, Argentina grew 9% annually, sustained for five consecutive years. Manufacturing in Argentina has recovered quickly from the crisis, but still despite growing 7% in 2008, the economy looks set to recess 1.5% – 3% in 2009, and stabilise in 2010. So why is Argentina still good for real estate?

• The population is increasing (36mil in 2001 to 40mil in 2008 and growing)
• The population is becoming wealthier (18% reduction in poverty from 2002-2008)
• Real Estate prices are still very low, compared to world capitals. Luxury new 1 bed apartments can still be purchased in the best locations of the city for around US$100,000.
• No capital gains tax and HUGE rental yields from 9% gross average (Global Property Guide)

Palermo Soho Buenos Aires

MALAYSIA
The property market potential in Malaysia is still in early stages, compared with similar markets like Thailand, or Singapore. The economy grew 4.6% in 2008, and the country has very low unemployment at 3.7% Reduced exports to US have had some effect. According to World Bank, Malaysia ranks 24th in Ease of doing business. Malaysia’s strengths includes getting credit and protecting investors, and the government aims to be in the top 10 by 2010.

• population is increasing (25mil 2000 to 28mil 2008)
• attracted about 21 million tourists in 2008, and forecast to drop in 2009, but then continue growing at around 5% from 2010
• Stable property and house price growth over the past 5 years and excellent rental yield prospects, in holiday hotspots and the capital Kuala Lumpur.
• No capital gains tax and Malaysia has one of the lowest house-price-to-income ratios in Asia

Kuala Lumpur Property Malaysia

TURKEY
Turkey is an excellent country for property investors, if you can avoid some over-priced coastal apartments for sale. The economy grew 4.8% in 2008, and have been forecast to literally “stand still” in 2009 at 0% growth. However there are a lot of factors positive which make Turkey a great potential market. The population is still growing, currently 71.5mil.

• Turkey succeeded in attracting US$21.9 billion in FDI in 2007, and interest is still growing in banking, retail, and telecommunications,
• Turkey is a EU Candidate Country
• Tourism is one of the most dynamic and fastest developing sectors in Turkey (24mil in 2005 to 31mil in 2008)
• Property prices are still low in comparison to countries with similar attractions and weather. Even though prices have come down in 2009 there is still great potential for appreciation and yields from 6%. 2 Bed new apartments are still around £45,000.
• No capital gains tax.

Istanbul Turkey

AUSTRALIA
A lot of people love Australia, yet they all say the same thing “I would love to visit but it’s just so far away from everywhere”. True, to access Australia from most parts of the globe takes longer than normal, but is it a good spot for investors? Australia’s property market has boomed over the past 8 years. Property prices have tripled. So why will buying now be a good investment?

• Rental demand is huge, and there is enormous potential for high yields after only a few years
• Australia looks to avoid recession, growing 1.9% in 2009
• population is increasing (19.8mil in 2006 to 21.7 in 2009)
• In Q3 2008, house prices continue to rise in Adelaide (9.7% y-o-y), Melbourne (8.1%), Darwin (6.4%), Brisbane (5.6%) and Hobart (2.4%), though at a much slower pace than previously.
• Australia has grown at an average annual rate of 3.6% for over 15 years

Brisbane Australia

PLEASE COMMENT

I welcome your feedback and other tips for countries great to buy in for 2009. But I don’t believe any hype or jargon – just the facts!